G2 - Development of population level environmental impact models
G - Environmental And Ecosystem Aspects
Challenges/Opportunities
There are currently no standard analytical methods to predict population level environmental impacts and deal with priority issues of marine animal and bird collision risk, displacement and disturbance.
Solution
Development of data collection, analysis and modelling techniques that include uncertainty estimates for marine animals and birds from individual up to population level. This will enable scientist to resolve environmental impact uncertainties, such as collision risk, displacement and disturbance for individual to population levels.
Context And Need
Need:
The lack of certainty in marine animal and bird population level environmental effects has high potential to be a barrier to the development of offshore renewable energy developments, eg. Firth of Forth windfarm Judicial Review).
Breakthrough:
Accurate but simple spatially explicit models are needed that can reflect individual level changes from ORE developments up to population level impact with low levels of uncertainty.
Summary
ORE projects may be prevented or held back by the lack of confidence of their effect on the marine environment. The current models do not predict the impact on individuals and on population levels with good certainty and so development of these models and the data collection and analysis methods behind them would enable more confident prediction of the impact on marine animals and birds.
This would enable the impact of ORE projects to be better understood and potentially lead to cost reduction in environmental monitoring and faster project consenting.
Impact Potential
The impact of improved models for population level environmental impact on marine animals and birds will help to remove a barrier from the development and acceleration of the ORE sector and will help to lower CAPEX costs significantly by enabling the sector to develop. New models will be cutting edge science.
Research Status
On-going research with lots of priority lists being created /updated, but little funding to proceed beyond current level of knowledge
1) ORJIPs (Both OE and Wind) http://www.orjip.org.uk/ with the current Forward look for Tidal/wave
2) MSS ScotMER and the MMO Strategic Report
Also Offshore Wind Innovation Hub - O&M and Windfarm Lifecycle innovation priorities
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We would also like to invite UK researchers and industry stakeholders within ORE to submit links to research projects, both past and present, for inclusion within the landscape.
Therefore, if you have a UK-based research project within an area of ORE that you feel is relevant to a specific research theme or challenge within the Research Landscape, click HERE to submit your research project to the research landscape
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Associated papers